The Smartest Person In The Room

Since setting up the business I have re-joined a number of social media platforms because #marketing - and this means I have had a front row seat to the online mud slinging of the past few weeks.

And it really has been a couple of stand out weeks online, with the warm glow of Olympics being overshadowed by an almost constant torrent of hate and misinformation. Tech assisted rioting seems to be quite in vogue.

Speaking of the Olympics, 27% of the UK population think that they could qualify for at least one event at the 2028 LA Olympics if they started training now. 6% think that they could qualify for the ACTUAL 100M SPRINT.

A reminder - these people walk amongst us. And social media gives such characters license to express their most maniacal opinions publicly for all to see.

The Neanderthals had cave drawings, ancient Egyptians had hieroglyphics - we have Terry on Twitter arguing with anyone who has an internet connection.

It truly is the golden age of snark. Anyone who dares make an error or a mis-step will be hauled over the coals by an online populace who curate their public image to within an inch of its life. Projecting an image of carefree perfection on Instagram, which likely has no resemblance to reality, they slate anyone who dares to have an opinion remotely different to theirs - or imagine this, makes a genuine mistake.

Social media ingrains opinions - fence sitting is no longer an option. Don’t have an opinion on Middle Eastern conflict, current levels of immigration or the intricacies involved in determining whether someone gets to compete at the Olympics? Best hurry up and get one chief.

The opportunity for nuanced debate is lost as everyone clamours to be the smartest person in the room. And you know what they say, if you really are the smartest person in the room you are in the wrong room.

If 6% of the population really believe that they could become world class sprinters within four years, then we can see how there will be a lot of people online who overestimate their intelligence and knowledge on any given subject.

I've written in the past about the dangers of over-confidence when it comes to investing. The most dangerous thing that an investor can possess is an ego because the market doesn’t care how right you think you are or how smart you think you are, it is a relentless judgement machine churning out real time feedback on your views and a lot of the time that feedback might not be what you want to hear.

If you are objectively wrong on a stock, but have fallen in love with it and refuse to accept it, that is a recipe for disaster. Great investors have strong opinions, but they hold them loosely. They are able to change their mind easily.

The best investors also recognise their limitations. Trying to not be wrong is a lot easier than trying to be right all the time.

For almost everyone who is investing, the best approach to take is one which avoids the potential for big blow ups. Have an asset allocation that you can stick with, that includes incredibly wide diversification and try to pay as little attention to the markets as possible. Regret minimisation.

That may not sound too glamorous and it doesn’t make for particularly interesting online content - but there are no extra points for difficulty in this game.